Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.869263 14.533284 17.505220 21.044822 25.123183 29.652427 35.039333
2026-01-04 8.133396 11.545934 15.782569 21.333541 28.312370 36.690399 47.393906
2026-01-11 6.115317 9.790087 14.753781 21.740969 31.094616 42.945712 58.829103
2026-01-18 4.860793 8.649071 14.149447 22.363690 33.924390 49.196805 70.420762
2026-01-25 3.710114 7.346072 13.015247 21.972402 35.176721 53.291982 79.288128
2026-02-01 2.995117 6.542327 12.438308 22.221482 37.220862 58.453622 89.731767
2026-02-08 2.327989 5.644112 11.533757 21.800165 38.159340 62.027069 98.072055
2026-02-15 1.781126 4.816926 10.586357 21.146596 38.614008 64.840789 105.382113
2026-02-22 1.512133 4.477463 10.430470 21.754247 41.032161 70.615657 117.152737
2026-03-01 1.192566 3.931298 9.788954 21.425073 41.875768 74.013818 125.531630
2026-03-08 0.971092 3.546624 9.389637 21.461932 43.288784 78.311925 135.380735
2026-03-15 0.724161 3.004737 8.561107 20.585099 43.047700 79.956920 141.218460
2026-03-22 0.608226 2.805174 8.474070 21.194952 45.565438 86.338124 154.957358
2026-03-29 0.489854 2.550076 8.216913 21.444520 47.476663 91.866273 167.665066
2026-04-05 0.401008 2.350901 8.050504 21.850738 49.685313 97.971074 181.501471
2026-04-12 0.336353 2.207825 7.994232 22.475715 52.329775 104.908364 196.904059
2026-04-19 0.251090 1.925795 7.505640 22.082872 52.985242 108.460542 206.916626
2026-04-26 0.200953 1.765328 7.315180 22.332932 54.893225 114.241644 220.763736
2026-05-03 0.146817 1.536493 6.865130 21.909954 55.412587 117.581858 230.642301
2026-05-10 0.102073 1.308919 6.351621 21.253794 55.387704 119.921602 238.886792
2026-05-17 0.084543 1.241124 6.345471 21.863855 58.028295 127.179384 255.703158
2026-05-24 0.060144 1.086434 5.993931 21.533378 58.642212 130.733932 266.259079
2026-05-31 0.044783 0.981822 5.792392 21.570383 60.040889 135.785101 279.543459